A Correlation Between the Weather and the Flu?
By: Meteorologist Steve Newton
Updated: January 12, 2013
With this year's flu now defined as an epidemic, the weather team was reminded of an article from November in which scientists claimed to be able to forecast a flu epidemic. Now seems like the right time to test it.
A little background first. Alicia Karspeck with NCAR and Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University published results in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (opens as a .pdf file). They ran their model against flu trends in New York City from 2003-2008. The result showed they could predict the flu's peak "more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak."
Shaman also published research in 2010 saying flu outbreaks often occurred immediately after a dry spell. Not taking Hurricane Sandy into account, Altoona received approximately 2.5" of rain. This is about what Altoona receives in October or November, not both months. Only six days in November recorded measurable precipitation.
It was at the start of December when Google's Flu Tracker reported "high" flu activity in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, just to name a couple states.
While it works in this case, calling a direct correlation between some dry periods and a flu outbreak doesn't work all the time. In fact, there is disagreement among scientists on whether or not there is a direct link between the weather and a flu epidemic.
So what do you think? Do you think there is a link between a dry spell in the fall to a spike in flu cases in the winter?
A little background first. Alicia Karspeck with NCAR and Jeffrey Shaman of Columbia University published results in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (opens as a .pdf file). They ran their model against flu trends in New York City from 2003-2008. The result showed they could predict the flu's peak "more than 7 wk in advance of the actual peak."
Shaman also published research in 2010 saying flu outbreaks often occurred immediately after a dry spell. Not taking Hurricane Sandy into account, Altoona received approximately 2.5" of rain. This is about what Altoona receives in October or November, not both months. Only six days in November recorded measurable precipitation.
It was at the start of December when Google's Flu Tracker reported "high" flu activity in Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, just to name a couple states.
While it works in this case, calling a direct correlation between some dry periods and a flu outbreak doesn't work all the time. In fact, there is disagreement among scientists on whether or not there is a direct link between the weather and a flu epidemic.
So what do you think? Do you think there is a link between a dry spell in the fall to a spike in flu cases in the winter?
