Sestak Erasing Specter's Lead
By: Adam Paluka
Updated: May 17, 2010
STATE COLLEGE, CENTRE COUNTY – The race for Pennsylvania’s Democratic Senate nomination is heating up this week.
Challenger Joe Sestak is giving five-term Senator Arlen Specter a run for his money.
The latest poll numbers show how quickly a race can turn.
Four weeks ago Senator Specter had a 20 point lead in the polls of over challenger Joe Sestak - not anymore.
A Quinnipiac University poll shows Spector with a 44 percent to 42 percent lead over Joe Sestak.
14 percent of voters in that poll are undecided. That survey had a +/- 3.2 percent margin of error.
Another poll released Wednesday, from Franklin & Marshall University, revealed Sestak with a 38 percent to 36 percent advantage. The key difference in this poll is that it found a quarter of likely voters have not made up their minds. Franklin & Marshall’s poll had a +/- 7.9 margin of error.
Senator Arlen Specter is not catching many breaks these days.
“It’s sort of a perfect storm for (Specter), in a bad way. You have this anti-incumbent wave that we are expecting to see in the midterms, along with his party switch where people are seeing it as a total political move as opposed to,’You know I feel more as a Democrat, as I did as a Republican,’” Penn State Political Science Professor Suzzane Chod said Wednesday.
When Specter switched parties last year, he did not shy away from saying why he made the move. Now his opponent is using his words against him. Television ads showcasing Specter saying he moved from the Republican Ticket to the Democratic Side to help him get reelected have turned this race into a dead heat.
“The ads have made an enormous difference in terms of letting people have a feeling that they know Joe Sestak, that they're comfortable with Joe Sestak,” Centre County Democrats Chair Dianne Gregg said.
Chod noted that in recent days, Sestak has defended his military record and pushed the right buttons about Specter's party switch.
“It's done smartly; it’s not sort of over the top and pushy and in your face. It's just enough to get voters to think 'Maybe Specter's not working for us, maybe he's working for himself.’”
After getting almost no attention, Gregg believes the next six days of this race are about to get even more unpredictable, attracting national coverage and interest.
“It was slow coming to a boil, for a long time we couldn't voters very interested in this race, but now with ads out, with the media attention having picked up so much, I think now there is a lot of interest in the race.”
Poll numbers could change again in the next few days. Chod expects both candidates to stop attacking each other and start showing voters what they will do for Pennsylvania.
Challenger Joe Sestak is giving five-term Senator Arlen Specter a run for his money.
The latest poll numbers show how quickly a race can turn.
Four weeks ago Senator Specter had a 20 point lead in the polls of over challenger Joe Sestak - not anymore.
A Quinnipiac University poll shows Spector with a 44 percent to 42 percent lead over Joe Sestak.
14 percent of voters in that poll are undecided. That survey had a +/- 3.2 percent margin of error.
Another poll released Wednesday, from Franklin & Marshall University, revealed Sestak with a 38 percent to 36 percent advantage. The key difference in this poll is that it found a quarter of likely voters have not made up their minds. Franklin & Marshall’s poll had a +/- 7.9 margin of error.
Senator Arlen Specter is not catching many breaks these days.
“It’s sort of a perfect storm for (Specter), in a bad way. You have this anti-incumbent wave that we are expecting to see in the midterms, along with his party switch where people are seeing it as a total political move as opposed to,’You know I feel more as a Democrat, as I did as a Republican,’” Penn State Political Science Professor Suzzane Chod said Wednesday.
When Specter switched parties last year, he did not shy away from saying why he made the move. Now his opponent is using his words against him. Television ads showcasing Specter saying he moved from the Republican Ticket to the Democratic Side to help him get reelected have turned this race into a dead heat.
“The ads have made an enormous difference in terms of letting people have a feeling that they know Joe Sestak, that they're comfortable with Joe Sestak,” Centre County Democrats Chair Dianne Gregg said.
Chod noted that in recent days, Sestak has defended his military record and pushed the right buttons about Specter's party switch.
“It's done smartly; it’s not sort of over the top and pushy and in your face. It's just enough to get voters to think 'Maybe Specter's not working for us, maybe he's working for himself.’”
After getting almost no attention, Gregg believes the next six days of this race are about to get even more unpredictable, attracting national coverage and interest.
“It was slow coming to a boil, for a long time we couldn't voters very interested in this race, but now with ads out, with the media attention having picked up so much, I think now there is a lot of interest in the race.”
Poll numbers could change again in the next few days. Chod expects both candidates to stop attacking each other and start showing voters what they will do for Pennsylvania.
